Like every other year, there is a state of mass hysteria around the Oscars - a thing that will only intensify as the event comes closer. Fans are already ready with their picks and making their best case for their favorites on the internet. The majority of the discourse, however, is about the Best Picture nominees - One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Sentimental Value, and Marty Supreme. The fan support behind each of them is overwhelming, and the arguments for and against the top picks are pouring in every second. 

But something has swayed the entire conversation towards one movie in particular, and made it a front-runner for the Oscars.

Oscars 2026 is just 15 days away, and everyone is busy making their theories as to why their favored choice should win. Amidst this madness, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has managed to bag the best theatrical motion picture award at the 37th annual Producers Guild Awards (PGA) on Saturday. 

For the unversed who do not know the hidden meaning behind this, the PGA honor has historically been a strong indicator for the Oscars. It is almost like a litmus test for the Best Picture nominees at the Academy Awards. And if there is any doubt regarding how strong an indicator it is, 17 of the previous 22 winners of the guild’s motion prize have gone on to clinch the best picture award at the Oscars.

Presented at a gala in Los Angeles, the PGA award solidifies Anderson's acclaimed film as the leading contender for the Oscar for Best Picture. There have been only three instances since 2009 where the PGA winner did not win at the Oscars. The last time it happened was in 2020, when 1917 lost the Oscar to Bong Joon Ho's Parasite despite winning at the PGA. But ever since then, the pattern has remained the same, and last year’s winner, Anora, is proof of that.

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Still, it begs the question - is winning at the PGA enough, what about other awards?

The 2026 awards season was dominated by One Battle After Another, winning several honors and accolades, the most important ones being the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice Awards. Along with the best picture, Paul Thomas Anderson got the best director title too at a few of them, reinforcing the position of the film even further.

The only movie now that can stand in its way is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which stunned everyone with a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations in January. Sinners is in the race for the cast award at the Actor Awards against One Battle After Another. To break the pattern, it might have to win the prestigious prize, as this is the same thing that happened in 2020 with Parasite.

Well, the focus has now shifted to the awards that come directly before the Oscars and the pattern they form with the big honor. The fate of the Oscar 2026-nominated movies is still kind of in limbo, but the only difference is that now, fans have a slight clue about which direction to look. 

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What are your thoughts on this pattern? Do you think One Battle After Another has a shot? Drop your thoughts in the comments.