Leonardo DiCaprio just received his sixth Oscar nomination for Best Actor, but is up against stern competition in Golden Globe winners Timothée Chalamet and Wagner Moura. He has not YET won a major trophy for One Battle After Another, and that could be exactly what makes him the favorite. 

Backing DiCaprio as this is the year voters will look to switch things up. They have room as well with there being no dominant force such as Cillian Murphy (2024) and Adrien Brody (2025). 

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DiCaprio’s scene with the resistance where he tries to remember the greeting code is gold. And it is also meme worthy, which can really boost his chances in the social media popularity game. 

One Battle After Another snagged a massive 13 nominations and is currently in a two horse race with Sinners (the most nominated film in Oscar history) for the Best Picture trophy. 

The Paul Thomas Anderson film has four more nominations than Marty Supreme’s 9. Timothée Chalamet is the sole acting nomination from Marty Supreme, which pales in comparison to OBAA’s four acting nods. 

Besides DiCaprio, the film has nominations for Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn (Best Supporting Actor) and Teyana Taylor (Best Supporting Actress).  This signals strong strength among the Academy’s Actors’ branch, and Leonardo DiCaprio could be the beneficiary as the face of this film. 

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It would also be a safe choice as he is popular among diverse groups of voters and viewers. 

Timothée Chalamet has the front runner advantage with his Globes and CCA wins, which may lead to the race losing the surprise factor. The Academy could look to spice things up and are historically not averse to doing so. Think back to the ceremony at Union Station where voters backed Anthony Hopkins over Chadwick Boseman. 

In a respected veteran like Leonardo DiCaprio they have the perfect name on whom to bestow the Oscar. They may opt for this as Chalamet has been rather vocal about his desire to win an Academy Award. 

Timothée Chalamet's openness about wanting to be one of the greats can signal ambition and hunger. It can also be seen as arrogance and overconfidence. 

After winning last year's Screen Actor Guild Award for his Leading Role in A Complete Unknown, Chalamet had said, “The truth is, I'm really in pursuit of greatness. I know that people don't usually talk like that, but I wanna be one of the greats. I'm inspired by the greats.”

He lost the Oscar to Adrien Brody a few days later and it really hurt per his words in November. 

“People can call me a try-hard, and they can say whatever,” said Chalamet. “But I’m the one actually doing it here.”

These are quotes that will emerge over the voting period, and can impact the 30-year-old’s chance at glory. Contrast that to Leonardo DiCaprio, whose wait for a maiden Oscar stretched to 22 years and voters may see class and patience as a more prudent winner. 

It makes him the smart choice for the win in 2026. 

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The Oscars will take place on March 15, 2026 at the Dolby Theater.