The Mandalorian & Grogu may be venturing into uncharted territory for Star Wars, with early signs pointing toward a box office run that could rewrite the franchise’s record books for all the wrong reasons. From the original trilogy onward, Star Wars has long been treated as box-office alchemy, a brand that could reliably turn theatrical releases into gold.

Films like A New Hope built the template for modern sci-fi blockbusters, and even divisive later entries such as The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker still crossed the billion-dollar mark worldwide. That track record cemented the idea that a Star Wars logo almost guaranteed a smash.

The latest cinematic return, The Mandalorian & Grogu, has complicated that assumption.

The Mandalorian & Grogu carries a production budget of about $165 million, alongside an estimated global marketing spend between $100 and $135 million dollars. That places its break-even point in the range of $500 to $600 million worldwide. Early projections for the four-day Memorial Day opening pointed to a global debut of $160 to $170 million, with domestic numbers hovering between $95 and $100 million, putting it close to Solo: A Star Wars Story.

The real concern emerged after the opening weekend. Box office tracking by The Hollywood Reporter shows the film slowing significantly, with global totals landing in the low- to mid-$300 million range. Domestic earnings remain under 200 million, while international markets have not provided the expected boost.

Several industry experts now suggest that, unless the film shows unusually strong late momentum, it could become the lowest-grossing live-action Star Wars film to date. That would place it behind Solo even before accounting for inflation. For a franchise once defined by consistent billion-dollar success, that shift marks a notable turning point.

'The Mandalorian and Grogu' Debuts Close to Weakest Star Wars Films of All Time

Perhaps Star Wars' box office legacy is on the shoulders of another story.

Star Wars' next project, Starfighter, arrives with a major advantage in its lead casting. Ryan Gosling headlines the film, bringing both star power and recent critical momentum. He is joined by a broad ensemble that includes Amy Adams, Mia Goth, Matt Smith, Aaron Pierre, Jamael Westman, Flynn Gray, Simon Bird, and Daniel Ings, giving the film a strong mix of prestige and range.

The story is described as a pilot-driven narrative set roughly five years after the Skywalker saga, focusing on a battle-worn character navigating a changing galaxy. Amy Adams has spoken about her excitement in joining the franchise, framing it as a personal milestone shaped by her early connection to the series. That kind of enthusiasm adds another layer of anticipation.

Behind the camera, Shawn Levy directs, bringing experience in balancing spectacle with character-driven storytelling. The film is positioned as a fully original theatrical entry rather than a direct extension of existing streaming narratives. That fresh approach, combined with its cast and setting, is why some see Starfighter as a genuine opportunity to restore theatrical momentum.

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Given all that, what excites you most about Starfighter: the cast, the post- Skywalker setting, or the idea of a standalone pilot-driven story? Let us know in the comments.