Digger has opened at about $20M on tracking. And while $20 million is a solid start for any regular movie, Digger’s star power and the massive budget does make the number a little more complicated. Now, there seems to be a divide in opinion among fans, who are rooting for the film's artistic success, and a well-known critic who has bluntly dismissed the film's early tracking numbers.

Matthew Belloni, Puck’s founder, recently made a tweet about Digger and ended it with a three-word verdict. 

“Tom Cruise’s DIGGER debuted on tracking last night at $20 million domestic, per NRG. Not good enough.”

The numbers were predicted on NRG tracking and other tracking outlets, like Boxoffice Pro, have similarly forecasted a tight window of $20M–$30M. The film will also debut directly against Amazon MGM's psychological thriller Verity, which is a mid-budget genre thriller compared to Digger. But trackers currently predict both films to debut right around the $20M–$30M mark, which is very rare for a Tom Cruise starrer. 

Analysts are also predicting that this could be Cruise’s lowest debut for a major, wide-release studio movie in almost 20 years. Despite the not-so-optimistic early tracking numbers, many fans are hopeful for the film’s long-term critical acclaim and specialized audience appeal. 

“I Don’t Need to Sleep” — How Tom Cruise Had His Arduous Six-Hour ‘Digger’ Makeup Wrapped in Under an Hour

This has led to a growing backlash from fans, who believe Belloni is being too pessimistic too soon. 

Fans immediately rushed in defense of Digger, reminding Matt Belloni of One Battle After Another. The 2025 film was heavily criticized by box office analysts like Belloni himself for its soft $22 million opening relative to its huge budget. However, the movie went on to be a massive hit and was a frontrunner at the awards season as well.  

“Are you gonna do with Digger the same thing you did with One Battle After Another? Come on, man,“ one user wrote under Belloni's tweet,   

 "To me it fufills the same role as 'One Battle After Another' where if the story lands it is a good movie to have in your stable," another said, disagreeing with Belloni's verdict. 

 "Matt loves broad based statements with no reference to facts or empirical data," said one, calling Belloni's analysis baseless. 

Some fans are ready to watch the film even if it does not work at the box office. 

"This one’s for the arts. Not the charts," an user claimed. 

"I don’t care about the money, I just hope it’s really good and we have a wild award season where Cruise and Damon trade haymakers in the Best Actor chase".

Ticket presales will officially go live next Tuesday and that will make the predictions even more solid. Until then, the social media discourse continues to keep the conversation around Digger alive.

‘He Is Making Impossible Demands’ – Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Crew Complain of Him Wearing Them Down

What do you think about Matt Belloni's tweet? Let us know in the comments!