Lily Gladstone cemented herself in pole position for the Best Actress prize at the 96th Oscars. The stats are heavily in her favor.

Here’s How Lily Gladstone’s SAG Win Cements Her Status as 2024 Oscar Favorite for Lead Actress 

It’s déjà vu! We are in for a repeat of the 2023 (Cate Blanchett vs Michelle
Yeoh) race for Lead Actress. This year’s Emma Stone
[https://www.netflixjunkie.com/tag/emma-stone/] vs Lily Gladstone
[https://www.netflixjunkie.com/tag/lily-gladstone/] contest for lead actress saw
a huge twist, with the latter emulating the Everything Everywhere All At Once
actress’ win. Lily Gladstone took home The Actor, indicating powerful support
from the largest guild at the Academy Awards. Her win at the Shrine Auditorium
and Expo Hall positions her as the name to beat as 72.41% of Lead Actress SAG
winners (21/29) have repeated their win at the Oscars.

This number has improved to 76.92% in the last 13 ceremonies, showcasing a
uniformity in voters’ preference across award shows. There may not be a change
on March 11, as there is a pattern emerging. Gladstone’s win not only showcased
her support
[https://www.netflixjunkie.com/hollywood-news-sag-awards-2024-lily-gladstone-killers-of-the-flower-moon-emma-stone-poor-things-best-actress/],
but also gave her an opportunity to cement herself in voters’ minds.


LILY GLADSTONE’S SPEECH FOCUSED ON VISIBILITY, STORYTELLERS, AND SOLIDARITY

A star’s nomination results from a stellar performance and a strong narrative,
but it is the campaigning that really sees things fall into place. Lily
Gladstone’s win allowed her to make a speech before her peers right in the
middle of Oscar voting. Gladstone spoke in her native language before switching
to English, where she said, “This has been a hard year for all of us. Those in
this room, those not in this room, I’m so proud that we have gotten here in
solidarity with all of our other unions.”

“It’s truly a gift that we get to do this for a living. That’s the win. It’s
getting to be here, it’s getting to be on set, it’s getting to tell stories. We
bring empathy into a world that so much needs it. It’s so easy to distance
ourselves. It’s so easy to close off, to stop feeling, and we all bravely keep
feeling, and that humanizes people. That brings people out of the shadows. It
brings visibility.”

“Keep telling stories to everybody in this room, to everybody watching abroad.
Those of you who are not actors but have a voice, have a story that needs to be
heard. Thank you for all of the compassionate souls in this room and all of the
storytellers here tonight. Keep speaking your truths and keep speaking up for
each other.”



The speech built on the narrative of her potentially becoming the first Native
American Oscar winner; it spoke about visibility, and provided a mention to the
other Academy branches as well. (All of whom vote for every award for the main
ceremony). Gladstone’s win does not mean that Stone’s hopes are over; at least
based on the numbers. 

Also Read: Lily Gladstone Reveals Friend and Oscar Competitor Emma Stone’s
‘Beautiful’ Gesture
[https://www.netflixjunkie.com/hollywood-news-lily-gladstone-reveals-friend-and-oscar-competitor-emma-stone-beautiful-gesture/]


EMMA STONE CAN STILL LEAVE THE DOLBY THEATER WITH THE OSCAR 

27.58% Lead Actress Oscar winners have taken home the gold statuette after
missing a win at the SAG Awards. The latest instance of this came three years
ago when the Academy Awards emanated from Union Station. Frances McDormand
(Nomadland) beat Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Two years before that,
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) beat Glenn Close (The Wife). To get the third last
instance of the SAG and the Academy crowning different winners, we need to look
back at 2012, where the Guild gave the trophy to Viola Davis (The Help) and the
Oscars awarded Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady). 

Academy Award Oscar statuettes
[data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==]HOLLYWOOD,
CA – MARCH 12: Oscar statues, backstage at the 95th Academy Awards at the Dolby
Theatre on March 12, 2023 in Hollywood, California. (Robert Gauthier / Los
Angeles Times via Getty Images)

The previous two instances were in 2003 and 2008. 2003 saw Nicole Kidman (The
Hours) beat Renee Zellweger (Chicago), and 2008 saw Marion Cotillard (La Vie en
Rose) beat Julie Christie (Away From Her). It is important to remember that all
five years saw the eventual Oscar winner also claim the BAFTA. The previous
different picks came in 1995 (first SAG Awards) and 2000. 

[In 2009, Kate Winslet (won the BAFTA and the Oscar) did not receive the SAG
lead actress, but picked the SAG supporting actress for The Reader.]

On all five occasions, the Oscar winner had something going for them. Meryl
Streep had the overdue narrative, with it being 29 years since her last win.
Colman clinched her Oscar as many Academy members may not have watched The Wife
due to it not having a best picture nomination. Frances McDormand trumped any
potential overdue narrative at the Oscars, as she was the face of what became
the year’s best film. That, and Davis’ movie, was a Netflix Original. Nicole
Kidman and Marion Cotillard played real-life characters. 

[data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==]

Neither Stone nor Gladstone has the overdue narrative, both feature in
theatrical releases that are nominated for Best Film. The Killers of The Flower
Moon actress has an advantage though, as she essayed a real-life character in
Mollie Burkhart. What Stone has working for her is the BAFTA win. 

The only threat from the other three nominees, i.e. Annette Benning (Nyad),
Carey Mulligan [https://www.netflixjunkie.com/tag/carey-mulligan/] (Maestro),
and Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), could come from the latter. She was not
part of the SAG nominees and could be an unknown quantity on Oscar night.
International support could also swing things in her favor. This would be a
surprise, as the pre-cursors indicate that things are set in stone. 

Also Read: ‘The Last of Us’ Wins Big: Pedro Pascal Bags the SAG 2024 as the Best
Leading Male for Drama Series
[https://www.netflixjunkie.com/hollywood-news-the-last-of-us-wins-big-pedro-pascal-bags-the-sag-2024-as-the-best-leading-male-for-drama-series/]

Who is your pick for Best Actress at the Academy Awards? Emma Stone or Lily
Gladstone? Let us know in the comments below. 

Reubyn Coutinho

Comment

Here’s How Lily Gladstone’s SAG Win Cements Her Status as 2024 Oscar Favorite for Lead Actress  - Netflix Junkie

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Reubyn Coutinho is an Editor and Film Critic at Netflix Junkie. This Mass Media Graduate from St. Xavier's has attended MAMI (2019) as a film critic. He hopes to be an official critic at festivals such as Sundance, Berlin, Venice, and Cannes. As someone drawn to the craft of cinema, the stories brought to life through them, and the memories created through breathtaking moments on screen, Reubyn, in this role, combines his knack for critical analysis, love for writing, and watching films. His favorite films include It's a Wonderful Life, Black Swan, and Dead Poets Society. As a passionate consumer of Netflix content, Reubyn adores The Crown, Stranger Things, Cobra Kai and Daredevil. Away from the film world, he always has his eye on Manchester United in the EPL.

https://netflixjunkie.com/hollywood-news-lily-gladstone-killers-of-the-flower-moon-sag-win-cements-her-status-as-2024-oscar-favorite-for-lead-actress-annette-bening-sandra-huller-carey-mulligan-emma-stone

Here’s How Lily Gladstone’s SAG Win Cements Her Status as 2024 Oscar Favorite for Lead Actress  - netflix-junkie

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We Know

It&#8217;s déjà vu! We are in for a repeat of the 2023 (Cate Blanchett vs Michelle Yeoh) race for Lead Actress. This year’s <a href="https://www.netflixjunkie.com/tag/emma-stone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emma Stone</a> vs <a href="https://www.netflixjunkie.com/tag/lily-gladstone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lily Gladstone</a> contest for lead actress saw a huge twist, with the latter emulating the Everything Everywhere All At Once actress’ win. Lily Gladstone took home The Actor, indicating powerful support from the largest guild at the Academy Awards. Her win at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall positions her as the name to beat as 72.41% of Lead Actress SAG winners (21/29) have repeated their win at the Oscars.
This number has improved to 76.92% in the last 13 ceremonies, showcasing a uniformity in voters&#8217; preference across award shows. There may not be a change on March 11, as there is a pattern emerging. Gladstone&#8217;s win not only <a href="https://www.netflixjunkie.com/hollywood-news-sag-awards-2024-lily-gladstone-killers-of-the-flower-moon-emma-stone-poor-things-best-actress/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showcased her support</a>, but also gave her an opportunity to cement herself in voters&#8217; minds.
<h2>Lily Gladstone’s speech focused on visibility, storytellers, and solidarity</h2>
A star’s nomination results from a stellar performance and a strong narrative, but it is the campaigning that really sees things fall into place. Lily Gladstone’s win allowed her to make a speech before her peers right in the middle of Oscar voting. Gladstone spoke in her native language before switching to English, where she said, &#8220;This has been a hard year for all of us. Those in this room, those not in this room, I&#8217;m so proud that we have gotten here in solidarity with all of our other unions.&#8221;
&#8220;It&#8217;s truly a gift that we get to do this for a living. That&#8217;s the win. It&#8217;s getting to be here, it&#8217;s getting to be on set, it&#8217;s getting to tell stories. We bring empathy into a world that so much needs it. It&#8217;s so easy to distance ourselves. It&#8217;s so easy to close off, to stop feeling, and we all bravely keep feeling, and that humanizes people. That brings people out of the shadows. It brings visibility.&#8221;
&#8220;Keep telling stories to everybody in this room, to everybody watching abroad. Those of you who are not actors but have a voice, have a story that needs to be heard. Thank you for all of the compassionate souls in this room and all of the storytellers here tonight. Keep speaking your truths and keep speaking up for each other.&#8221;
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Lily Gladstone: Award Acceptance Speech | 30th Annual SAG Awards" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RYSIysa2FTc" width="914" height="514" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
The speech built on the narrative of her potentially becoming the first Native American Oscar winner; it spoke about visibility, and provided a mention to the other Academy branches as well. (All of whom vote for every award for the main ceremony). Gladstone’s win does not mean that Stone’s hopes are over; at least based on the numbers. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.netflixjunkie.com/hollywood-news-lily-gladstone-reveals-friend-and-oscar-competitor-emma-stone-beautiful-gesture/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lily Gladstone Reveals Friend and Oscar Competitor Emma Stone&#8217;s &#8216;Beautiful&#8217; Gesture</a>
<h2>Emma Stone can still leave the Dolby Theater with the Oscar </h2>
27.58% Lead Actress Oscar winners have taken home the gold statuette after missing a win at the SAG Awards. The latest instance of this came three years ago when the Academy Awards emanated from Union Station. Frances McDormand (Nomadland) beat Viola Davis (Ma Rainey&#8217;s Black Bottom). Two years before that, Olivia Colman (The Favourite) beat Glenn Close (The Wife). To get the third last instance of the SAG and the Academy crowning different winners, we need to look back at 2012, where the Guild gave the trophy to Viola Davis (The Help) and the Oscars awarded Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady). 
<figure id="attachment_164668" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-164668" style="width: 6000px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" class="size-full wp-image-164668 lazyload" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" data-src="https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404.jpg" alt="Academy Award Oscar statuettes" width="6000" height="4000" data-sizes="auto" data-srcset="https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404.jpg 6000w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-300x200.jpg 300w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-768x512.jpg 768w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-370x247.jpg 370w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-800x533.jpg 800w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-20x13.jpg 20w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-185x123.jpg 185w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-740x493.jpg 740w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-400x267.jpg 400w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-1600x1067.jpg 1600w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/GettyImages-1248109404-72x48.jpg 72w" sizes="(max-width: 6000px) 100vw, 6000px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-164668" class="wp-caption-text">HOLLYWOOD, CA &#8211; MARCH 12: Oscar statues, backstage at the 95th Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre on March 12, 2023 in Hollywood, California. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>
The previous two instances were in 2003 and 2008. 2003 saw Nicole Kidman (The Hours) beat Renee Zellweger (Chicago), and 2008 saw Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) beat Julie Christie (Away From Her). It is important to remember that all five years saw the eventual Oscar winner also claim the BAFTA. The previous different picks came in 1995 (first SAG Awards) and 2000. 
[In 2009, Kate Winslet (won the BAFTA and the Oscar) did not receive the SAG lead actress, but picked the SAG supporting actress for The Reader.]
On all five occasions, the Oscar winner had something going for them. Meryl Streep had the overdue narrative, with it being 29 years since her last win. Colman clinched her Oscar as many Academy members may not have watched The Wife due to it not having a best picture nomination. Frances McDormand trumped any potential overdue narrative at the Oscars, as she was the face of what became the year&#8217;s best film. That, and Davis’ movie, was a Netflix Original. Nicole Kidman and Marion Cotillard played real-life characters. 
<img loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-165152 lazyload" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" data-src="https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht.jpg" alt="" width="1770" height="999" data-sizes="auto" data-srcset="https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht.jpg 1770w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-300x169.jpg 300w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-1024x578.jpg 1024w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-768x433.jpg 768w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-1536x867.jpg 1536w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-370x209.jpg 370w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-800x452.jpg 800w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-20x11.jpg 20w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-185x104.jpg 185w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-740x418.jpg 740w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-400x226.jpg 400w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-1600x903.jpg 1600w, https://image-cdn.netflixjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/hhhht-85x48.jpg 85w" sizes="(max-width: 1770px) 100vw, 1770px" />
Neither Stone nor Gladstone has the overdue narrative, both feature in theatrical releases that are nominated for Best Film. The Killers of The Flower Moon actress has an advantage though, as she essayed a real-life character in Mollie Burkhart. What Stone has working for her is the BAFTA win. 
The only threat from the other three nominees, i.e. Annette Benning (Nyad), <a href="https://www.netflixjunkie.com/tag/carey-mulligan/">Carey Mulligan</a> (Maestro), and Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), could come from the latter. She was not part of the SAG nominees and could be an unknown quantity on Oscar night. International support could also swing things in her favor. This would be a surprise, as the pre-cursors indicate that things are set in stone. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.netflixjunkie.com/hollywood-news-the-last-of-us-wins-big-pedro-pascal-bags-the-sag-2024-as-the-best-leading-male-for-drama-series/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘The Last of Us’ Wins Big: Pedro Pascal Bags the SAG 2024 as the Best Leading Male for Drama Series</a>
Who is your pick for Best Actress at the Academy Awards? Emma Stone or Lily Gladstone? Let us know in the comments below.

Lily Gladstone Reveals Friend and Oscar Competitor Emma Stone’s ‘Beautiful’
Gesture

‘The Last of Us’ Wins Big: Pedro Pascal Bags the SAG 2024 as the Best Leading
Male for Drama Series

SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA &#8211; FEBRUARY 25: Lily Gladstone attends the 2024 Film Independent Spirit Awards on February 25, 2024 in Santa Monica, California. (Photo by Araya Doheny/Getty Images)

2024 Film Independent Spirit Awards &#8211; Backstage

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Here’s How Lily Gladstone’s SAG Win Cements Her Status as 2024 Oscar Favorite for Lead Actress

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