Tom Cruise is finally risking something no motorcycle, airplane, or cliff could threaten: his carefully built movie-star identity. Digger sends the action icon into dark climate-change satire, trading his familiar savior persona for a far less comfortable challenge. Critics have responded with mixed reviews, making Cruise’s latest gamble an unusually exposed career move.

Yet reviews may not be the danger: in 2026’s renaissance, Digger could discover audiences have no appetite for Cruise’s detour.

Tom Cruise is betting big on Digger, and the gamble comes with a $125 million to $180 million price tag. The dark comedy is currently tracking toward just $12 million to $20 million domestically for its October 2 release. That opening would put a remarkably expensive Cruise vehicle on decidedly uncomfortable financial terrain.

The problem becomes even clearer when the theatrical math enters the picture. Digger reportedly needs roughly $300 million worldwide to reach break-even, while industry trackers have estimated losses of up to $100 million. For Warner Bros. and Legendary, that is a rather enormous hole for one movie to dig.

The mixed critical response has hardly helped, with Digger sitting around the 40% to 51% range on Rotten Tomatoes. Still, reviews may be only part of the headache, because early tracking has fallen below $15 million. In a 2026 cinematic renaissance, Digger may be arriving with considerably less audience momentum.

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With Digger now threatening Tom Cruise’s Oscar chances, there is still time for the film to turn the tide.

Digger may still have a few tricks left before its box office fate is sealed. Warner Bros. Pictures is embracing the film’s divisive reception, using sharply contrasting reviews to make the dark comedy feel like a cinematic dare. Tom Cruise’s international appeal could also give the film room to recover beyond its domestic opening. If curiosity wins over caution, that strategy could turn the film’s biggest weakness into an unexpected selling point.

The studio is also leaning into Digger’s prestige credentials, from Alejandro González Iñárritu’s direction to Tom Cruise’s dramatic transformation, while premium VistaVision and IMAX screenings could squeeze more value from every ticket. If those gambits work together, Digger could avoid the financial freefall its early tracking currently suggests.

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How do you think Digger will perform at the box office? Let us know in the comments!